The College of Policing recently announced further developments about their proposed (and controversial) new Sergeant and Inspector Promotion and Progression (SIPP) process.
Having walked SIPP back from their original plans, the College gave a brief press release in late May, while on the same day released an associated light-touch interview about it. Did you notice? These aimed to convey what are openly advertised as the main “takeaways” and “soundbites”, in what has been to date, a mere drip-feed of information relating to this important scheme for aspiring police leaders.
So what new information or developments are there for aspiring officers to learn about their future? Beyond the ‘soundbites’, what are the key questions which remain unanswered around this important new scheme? In this blog I allude to the forces who have pulled out from the trial, those who remain, and pose some pertinent questions. All of this will be of interest to UK officers aspiring to promotions now and in future.
5 Forces Withdraw from SIPP Trials
As a reminder, SIPP was originally planned to be rolled out widely. That is until quite recently, when it became clear a great many officers who would be affected, had not been consulted and knew nothing about it. Some reflection at that point resulted in SIPP then being ‘kicked down the road’ a couple of years. Instead, a pilot was planned for several forces, to work with the college to trial the scheme.
In November 2023, the College released information about their SIPP process design, including confirmation that:
“9 forces have volunteered to test the process from 2024”
By February 2024, this had apparently been whittled down to just seven named forces, with two clearly having pulled out. However by its latest (May 2024) announcement, two more forces had withdrawn.
“This is a two year pilot in five forces.” – Andy Marsh QPM, College of Policing CEO
More confusingly, in their own recent press release, the College now only name four forces who are going forward and piloting the scheme. The forces now named in the scheme are:
- Gwent Police
- Lincolnshire Police
- Leicestershire Police
- Avon and Somerset Police
So in the space of six months, we’ve gone from nine forces down to just four volunteering in this trial (or maybe it’s five and one is being kept a secret). At this rate of attrition, how many forces will still be in the pilot scheme by March 2026, when the trial is due to complete?
Notably, these particular forces together represent just 4% of promotion candidates in a typical year. For example, Gwent, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, and A&S police forces collectively provided 179 of the nearly 4,300 candidates who put themselves forward for the latest Sergeant’s legal exam. More on this later…
Why Have Test Forces Pulled Out?
To date, there hasn’t been any information or rationale published as to why all these forces appear to be deserting the scheme. The Met Police have withdrawn as have others named in the February 2024 release, but who are no longer in the named pilot cohort as at May 2024. Those others are West Yorkshire, Gloucestershire, and Staffordshire.
So why have these volunteer forces pulled out? What explanations or reasons were given? Are these general or specific? Some initial pertinent questions might include:
- What was it about the pilot scheme which made these forces pull out? Having had a closer look at the details others aren’t privy to, what ‘red flags’ did they observe?
- Why have those forces decided to stay with the National Police Promotion Framework (NPPF) as opposed to being early adopters of SIPP?
- Were there any common themes or concerns cited by forces?
- Having seen the added complexity of SIPP, was it deemed too much of a burden for local force HR departments to pilot it alongside other priorities?
- Given the scheme appears unattractive to most forces, what incentives (if any) are currently being offered or provided by the College to shore it up and ensure the remaining four forces don’t also drop out?
Answers to these important questions are not found in the ‘soundbite’ and intermittent press releases given to date. With police degree entry routes, the College have only just recently changed what they themselves deem to be “the most significant workforce reform in policing in decades”. The move from NPPF to SIPP will clearly be the most significant reform to police promotion in decades!
The most seismic changes with SIPP relate to the exam and its timing. So, is the current exam part of the pilot? If not, what are officers going to do as a knowledge test whilst in the pilot?
Such questions therefore are imperative for any new scheme to be based on good evidence and practice. One key aspect of that evidence is ensuring the sample/trial is representative of wider forces and promotion candidates. Let’s explore this now…
Is the Sample Size now Too Small?
With bigger forces like the Met Police no longer included, this significantly affects the sample size the College can use to evaluate the pilot. Is a pilot using just 4% of all candidates sufficient to draw conclusions beyond the qualitative and anecdotal? That will be a few hundred per year, going by the Sergeant promotion exam and Inspector exam numbers.
Beyond the purely statistical, there may also be questions about whether the four remaining forces being used to trial the new SIPP scheme, are truly representative of forces generally.
A critical aim of introducing SIPP was to review the exam and its (negative) impact on diversity under the Race characteristic. But as I’ve shown in my analyses of Inspector and Sergeant legal exam results, these particular forces generally do better than others when it comes to the exam. They also include forces with relatively fewer minority ethnic applicants, so any change or improvements will be hard to detect.
With just a few hundred promotion candidates now involved in the pilot, there won’t be enough people to meaningfully compare results along the Race characteristic beyond the speculative or anecdotal level.
Can the feedback from such a small and arguably non-representative pilot really inform anyone that the new scheme will work? And work in the way intended to reduce disparities between protected groups? Will the four remaining forces provide enough of an ‘evidence base’ to properly evaluate the effectiveness of the pilot?
The cynics out there might then expect future glossy videos and interviews with aspiring candidates, anecdotally ‘singing the praises’ of SIPP.
Given such low numbers, any comparisons to a ‘control group’ within those forces will also be a struggle. This means they will have to make the grand assumption that any differences between pilot vs. other forces derived from the SIPP scheme itself, rather than other factors which may be in play between the forces.
I share the College’s own Authorised Professional Practice on evidence-based policing below. It’s called a ‘Ladder of Evidence’. On which rungs can we estimate whether SIPP is making a difference using these sampling methodologies and assumptions being made?
Examining the Costs
Another point not yet answered, even though forces have embarked on the pilot: How much will SIPP cost? Not just the cost it’s taken to develop so far, but how much does it cost forces to implement? Estimates will do, so what is the ballpark figure?
Here’s a radical idea: Might such costs be better used by simply providing additional study materials and support for the legal exam? This was after all a key rationale for changing the entire promotion scheme, seen as a hurdle for minority ethnic groups (although women perform better than men at the exam in the equality monitoring).
Some more openness and transparency on these pertinent questions will assist with uncertainty about SIPP, which seeks to shake up the selection of police leaders via a modernised ‘fit for purpose’ new scheme reflecting the requirements and challenges of 21st Century policing. But is this already a case of the ‘sunk cost fallacy’?
Pilots Always Win?
Some people may argue ‘all pilot schemes tend to succeed’, even after losing momentum. They are promptly filed as a “success” regardless (e.g. see this review of Direct entry Superintendents) and the waters quickly get muddied regarding any tangible or evidenced cost vs. benefit comparisons.
Observers are encouraged to quickly forget and move on or a new topic. Police Degrees is another controversial scheme where the pilot was deemed to “succeed”. In the end, force demands were met and non-degree entry routes were allowed.
How much support is being provided to the 4 remaining forces to get SIPP off the drawing board, ‘out of the hangar’ and off the ground for a maiden flight. Certainly, a tremendous amount of team effort will be needed with SIPP get enough lift.
So it is perhaps understandable that questions still remain. Is SIPP a forgone conclusion? Will it simply be’ rubber stamped’ and implemented? What real ‘consultation’ with officers will actually take place? Will any red flags be ironed out before it’s deemed (like most “pilots” in policing) a “success”, with another hard deadline announced for everyone to ‘just do it’?
After police degrees, SIPP is the next flagship new scheme for the College. While it’s intended to substantially change how officers are selected for promotion in the future, most frontline officers who it affects have not felt consulted with. Unsurprisingly, many had questions.
A press release from the College subsequently confirmed SIPP proposals were now to be kicked down the road until 2027. The release also confirmed no decisions had been made, a pilot trial would proceed, and any recommendations would be taken to National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC).
Using SIPP as a metaphor to redress the shortfall in management and leadership skills provided to Sergeants and Inspectors, through an array of online learning modules, might well be seen as a disingenuous attempt to turn things around. But change is the only constant, and clearly changes are needed if policing is to get the best from 40+ years of history of the promotion exam.
I have invited the College of Policing’s CEO Andy Marsh (and other senior staff) for an interview to feature on my popular police promotion and leadership podcast. I’d hoped to discuss SIPP and other College work, as a genuine interest piece to listeners, while helping to convey things beyond the “soundbite” level for interested officers. Unfortunately, invites to date have been declined. However the invite remains open to anyone in the College who might like to take the opportunity to share my platform, for conveying meaningful updates, rationale and perspectives on the most significant .
Whilst there are some questions here for the College, which I hope they are willing to answer, there is also a lingering question for forces themselves:
“Given this is the largest change to police promotion in decades, why does it appear that forces are so disengaged from being involved in its creation?”
I hope you have found this blog food for thought. I wish you all the best and until next time, take care and stay safe.
Kind Regards, Steve
Seeking police promotion? Want to get a massive head start right now? Hit the ground running with your personal digital promotion toolkit, and/or my market-leading Police Promotion Masterclass. There’s nothing else like it to effectively prepare you for success in your leadership aspirations. You can also contact me to arrange more personal coaching support, or try my podcast for your ongoing police leadership CPD covering a range of fascinating subjects.
