In Part 1 of this police workforce series, I brought together strength of all roles in policing across the UK and Ireland. For Part 2, I explored diversity and representation, looking across the protected characteristics of officers and staff compared to the population.
Here in Part 3, we’ll focus on officer joiners and leavers from the England and Wales police workforce statistics. In particular, we’ll answer the following important questions for policing:
- How many officers left the England and Wales police forces last year?
- How does this compare against joiners and previous years?
- Are voluntary resignations truly outgrowing retirements?
- Are officers being dismissed from service more than ever?
- Is there any signal of Covid or vaccine injuries in the officer death rates?
- Are there differences in the diversity among joiners and leavers?
- After the churn of ‘Uplift’, what experience do officers now have?
We’ll be focusing in on the England and Wales statistics, because unlike the general officer strength (Pt 1) and diversity (Pt 2) figures, Police Scotland and PSNI don’t routinely report such information. Towards the end, I’ll also discuss some of the impacts of leadership and supervision inexperience following Uplift.
Overall Police Officer Turnover
9,080 police officers (FTE) left England and Wales forces last year, slightly lower than the record high for the prior year. Nearly 4,000 of these had less than 5 years’ service (more on that later). However, given 9,479 FTE joined policing in the same period, overall officer strength increased last year. That’s despite the formal ‘Uplift’ programme concluding by March 2023.
Below, I’ve plotted the overall leaver rate for you. The 9,080 leaving last year represents a turnover of 6.2%. Aside from a dip in the year to March 2021 (which represented the main year of Covid restrictions), this continues the circa 6% rate seen since 2016 and onwards. In the next section I break down why officers are leaving.
While 6% is slightly higher for officers compared to historical leaver rates, that for staff and PCSOs remains far higher. Last year, 10.4% of police staff left their positions, of which 3/4 were voluntary resignations (a normal proportion for staff). For PCSOs, the wastage was 15.1%, with the overwhelming majority being resignations (again, this is historically normal for this role type).
To get an idea of the overall officer ‘churn’, it is helpful to also review the joiner rates. Now the churn of Uplift has passed, joiner rates last year returned to a more normal level of around 6%.
Why Are Officers Leaving Forces?
We’ve already noted the big increase of leavers coinciding with a big increase in joiners in the prior section. But why are officers leaving in their droves?
The first thing that smacks you in the face is the growing volume and proportion of Voluntary Resignations among officers. For no doubt a myriad of pay, safety, political, and justice reasons, officers are handing back their warrant cards at the highest levels ever.
Nearly 3/4 of voluntary resignations had less than 5 years’ service in the job. This means that those most likely to vote with their feet and leave the service have not long joined. Were they in it just to attain a free degree, or possibly on the flip side found the academia too much of a hassle? Are the police salary increments during these early years not enticing enough? Or are a range of other pressures at play? It would be helpful if forces began doing some meaningful exit interviews to find out for sure!
So how does this compare to the traditionally-large group who retire from policing, often from the ranks above PC and with decades of service? In the below representations, I demonstrate just how much the voluntary resignations have swamped retirements, compared to 5 years ago. Well over half of last year’s exodus resigned, whereas the norm up to 2019 (and for the decade prior too!) was just over a quarter.
While not shown here, the workforce statistics show a similar high in resignation rates among British Transport Police officers last year.
The following graphic merely emphasises the point further, demonstrating the rapid growth of resignations. Resignations have now overtaken retirements for the past two years running.
Record Levels of Officers Dismissed
Officer misconduct has become a constant and intensive theme of scrutiny for policing in recent years. This follows high profile cases, the Casey Review, a comprehensive re-vetting of all officers nationally, among other developments. Coinciding with this, force professional standards departments have grown exponentially in strength, emphasising Chief Officer decisions in choosing to disproportionately invest in this area.
Last year saw record levels of officers dismissed or ‘required to resign’ from policing, exceeding the previous high in the year to March 2017. Could this be the screws tightening and more intense scrutiny to reassure the public and unearthing more ‘bad apples’? Possibly also the rush of ‘Uplift’ (aka replenishment!) recruiting a few more officers who were clearly unfit for the job? What do you think?
While the 365 individuals represent one officer dismissed per day, it’s worth noting that this represents just 0.2% of the workforce that year.
Not included above but of note, is the fact that 50 officers were dismissed from BTP last year. That’s more than double their usual rate, representing a more substantial 2% of their officer workforce. That’s 10X the proportional rate seen among England and Wales forces. What went on here?
Death in Service Numbers Stable
The above chart also includes those leavers categorised as ‘death in service’. Every case here is of course tragic, with a reminder in every thin blue line patch many officers wear. Looking at overall trends for this blog, death in service is at a relatively constant rate in recent years, both in the absolute volume above and the ‘per 100k officers’ (to factor in the effect that there are now record numbers of officers in service).
This constant rate offers up some relatively reassuring conclusions, specifically about two concerns many people had during Covid (and since). That is, at least when using this vast sample of nearly 150,000 people:
- There seems to be no signal of a deadly pandemic among the police officer population, because there was no apparent spike in deaths of officers during the initial year or two of Covid-19.
- There seems to be no signal of deadly side effects of vaccines to date among the police officer population, because there have been no apparent spikes in officer deaths since large numbers of cops chose to take 2, 3, or more shots since mid- to late-2021 (which would otherwise show up in the year ending 2022-2024 figures).
Whatever side (if any) you may take in relation to the hotly contested Covid / vaccine debate, I hope these (unfortunately morbid) figures provide some reassurance. It’s worth noting from the national figures there’s no apparent rise in the number of medical retirements either. In fact, these are now far lower than the relatively high volume of medical retirements during the 2012-2019 era.
I’ll leave it for others who may choose to explore any long-term or other sickness data for their force. Most forces for example record (and should report somewhere) sickness absence rates by reason, including those off sick relating to Covid symptoms as well as those off sick relating to vaccine injuries.
Police Suicide Needs More Attention
Around 20-25% of police officer deaths in service each year are by suicide. That seems more than those killed in the dangers faced on the line of duty itself. However, suicide in UK policing is currently under-researched and according to ONS figures, are not reducing. This situation appears to be changing however.
The ‘Suicide Prevention in Policing’ report, published by the College of Policing alongside the NPCC and Oscar Kilo (the national police wellbeing service), outlines the information that is currently known about suicide in policing in England and Wales.
Although not identified by the ONS as an occupation at specific risk in England and Wales, there continues to be interest in police suicide and research around occupational-related stressors. These stressors include exposure to trauma, unmanageable workloads, shift work, long working hours, sleep problems, shift work, career stagnation, and professional standards investigations.
The College, NPCC, and OK in 2022 also produced a National Consensus Statement. This listed a range of pledges towards reducing the number of suicides in policing. Such pledges included “sharing communications”, “making recommendations”, “developing conversations”, among other somewhat intangible aspirations.
Since then however, there have been more significant developments, with the publication of a more tangible action plan and piloting of a mental health crisis line launched just last month. While the timescales of many items are not until 2026, I encourage all leaders and those interested to explore these items and know that help is just around the corner.
Diversity of Joiners and Leavers
The below graphic compares leaver rates between the protected characteristics of Sex and Race. Female officers are still leaving at a proportionately lower rate than their male counterparts. However, the black and minority ethnic (BAME) officer leaver rate has grown in the last three years, now higher than their white counterparts.
The proportion of BAME joiners was 10.5% last year, with 9.9% leaving, a differential of just 0.6%. The BAME joiner rate has averaged on or around the 11% mark for the last decade. This apparent stagnation does not bode well for policing in its (arguably unachievable) aim of being as ethnically diverse as the general public.
Sticking with ethnicity data, this year was the first year the Home Office and forces have reported joiners by detailed ethnic group, rather then the blunt ‘white vs non-white’ approach. Below plots the latest year joiner headcount by group for all E&W forces and BTP.
Forces nationally also aim to be more representative of women in policing. The below plot demonstrates how in recent years, forces have generally attained well over 40% in their female joiner profile.
Several forces have achieved around the 50% female representation in their officer recruitment for the last two full years combined. Those forces are: Leicestershire (51%), Surrey (51%), Durham (50%), Avon and Somerset (50%), Hampshire (50%), West Yorkshire (50%), Bedfordshire (49%), and Merseyside (49%). The relatively lower forces were in the 35 – 40% range, while BTP and City of London Police reported recruiting 24% and 28% female officers in these two years respectively.
Officer Length of Service & Experience
In terms of officer experience (measured in length of service), we can use the Home Office’s own graphics for a good overview. Formally, forces consider officers experienced enough to patrol independently within their first year of service. The Police Federation often argue it takes 5 years’ service to become an ‘experienced’ officer. Others argue 2-3 years, in line with the formal end of the probationary period and when officers can seek promotion. How would you define ‘experienced’?
Either way, there are now over 53,000 officers with under 5 years of service in the English and Welsh police forces, accounting for 35% of all officers. Around 23,000 of these had under 2 years’ service.
There is great variation between forces on this metric. Bedfordshire, Warwickshire, and Wiltshire have 42% of their officers with under 5 years’ service. South Yorkshire and Staffordshire aren’t far behind with 41%. At the other end of the scale, Dyfed Powys, City of London, North Wales, and North Yorkshire have fewer than 30%.
In 2016, when data collection on service length began, the proportion of police officers with <5 years’ service was just 14%. However, this was likely an unusually low figure, given the severe restrictions on recruitment in the preceding five years. In any case, since then it’s been on the rise, accelerated by the intensive ‘Uplift’ recruitment from around 25% to its current 35%.
Leading Inexperience After Uplift
The impact of the intensive ‘Uplift’ programme is clear, and it will take several years to return to the usual rates. It seems for now, the peak of inexperience has passed already. But there will be chronic pockets of inexperience however going far beyond the 35% stated above, sometimes forming the majority of officers on a team (most notably on frontline response and patrol sections).
For example, an officer I spoke to last week has five years’ service. They are currently a temporary Sergeant leading a team of eight response officers covering a busy city centre. All eight officers on the team have less than four years’ service. Does this sound a familiar story where you are?
A ‘span of control’ ratio of 1:8 is challenging for a proficient, experienced, knowledgeable supervisor, let alone a temporary Sergeant learning the ropes by managing eight officers working to become competent constables. Talk about ‘in at the deep end’! Decision making, intrusive regular supervision, effective workload management, welfare and wellbeing, discipline and briefings; all these are expectations of Sergeants.
It gets worse for the force in question. I asked, “What training or preparation have you had to support you through your temporary period?”
Reply: “A few shifts shadowing a [Sergeant] colleague.”
“Any ongoing coaching or mentoring support offered?”
“No”
“So who do you ring for support if you need it?”
“You are expected to just get on with it. I have someone to speak to if I’m really stuck.”
“What about your inspector as your line manager?”
“I can, but…”
Yes, “but”, i.e. there’s an unwritten expectation you will indeed ‘get on with it’, maybe a deterrence from asking for help as the Inspector is busy, etc. Could this speak to the culture of that team? Learning on the job should involve questions flowing thick and fast in a supportive environment.
It’s ok when things go well, and people cope, but what could go wrong? Because, when things do go wrong, as sure as eggs are eggs “Why didn’t you ask for help?” will be one of the first questions asked. ‘Sink or swim’ is the phrase that came to mind.
But is this unusual? Based on other conversations with acting and temporary ranks I don’t believe it is. It’s one indicator of the ‘real culture’ that exists alongside more positive aspects in policing.
There are several reasons for the most inexperience seemingly being within the most visible front line of policing. I’ve identified four other reasons below; can you think of any others?
- Response is where most forces place their new officers upon completing initial training.
- Those cops who progress through the ranks via promotion have proportionately more experience.
- Experienced cops, tired of the shift patterns, dangers and such on response, or just seeking development and career change, often choose to make lateral moves to other functions in policing.
- Senior officers are increasingly prioritising their resources away from front line functions like these, which often require more experience.
Whatever the reasons in your force, it all means Sergeants here must work hard on their supervisory CPD. But where should that structured development come from?
Forces Must Grow Leadership Experience
So if you make it through and achieve substantive promotion, will you get that training you need? The answer seems to be it very much depends. You will be lucky if you do. It’s not quite pot luck but it does appear to be inconsistent across forces.
Some individuals may receive a course on promotion, others not until they have been in post a couple of years. It is widely recognised that Sergeants especially do not receive the training they need to do the job. It seems to be an historical and ongoing struggle for forces to get this right. Here’s a quote from Edward Werder, former Police Chief in Florida, USA, in January 1996:
“Unfortunately, many Sergeants never receive any formal training before or after assuming their position. Traditionally we have allowed the individuals selected as a Sergeant to learn the job by observing others and by making mistakes… A new Sergeant needs 80-120 hours of instruction in basic management skills soon after being appointed. It might not be possible to afford this much training immediately, but it should be the department’s objective to provide this quantity of training quickly.”
But that’s the USA right? Surely it’s different now in the UK and the best part of thirty years down the line? You might think so, because there are rightly, expectations of supervisors in setting, communicating and reinforcing standards, especially in light of the Casey Review.
Yet even Chief Constables today recognise that’s not always the case. In my recent exclusive podcast interview with the Chief Constable of West Midlands police, Craig Guildford QPM, he provides clear insights and perspectives into ongoing challenges, including his observation that:
“Post-austerity, the service has recruited at pace and probably has had to promote at pace as well in certain areas, and I’ve certainly seen that here… we have to recognise that we’ve not invested in some of those skills for supervisors in the way that perhaps it was when I joined. So most forces are reinvesting in supervisory training and trying to upskill, I think that’s a good thing, we are doing that, and I know loads of others are.”
He acknowledges policing should be honest with supervisors in that it could perhaps have done better concerning investment in their development. West Midlands police are doing this now via bespoke and valuable classroom training. If you’ve experienced this course, get in touch, I’d be interested to know how it’s going.
In another exclusive podcast interview with former Chief Constable Lee Freeman (now HMICFRS Inspector), he alludes to the importance of first line supervision:
“What defines your culture, your wellbeing, and your performance is the quality of your first line supervision and management.”
The recent HMICFRS Inspection report on the Metropolitan police highlighted concerns with levels of supervision and allocating investigations to teams with the right skills. In response to this being shared across social media, comments from experienced supervisors included:
“The reliance on inexperienced response and neighbourhood teams to carry ongoing and complicated investigations is ludicrous. We failed to train supervisors properly for years. My skippers courses in 2004 were a month long. All that was replaced with work based assessment, which was a poor replacement.”
Clearly it is no secret that meaningful, relevant and timely training is an area where policing appears to be letting aspiring supervisors down (despite the College of Policing’s new bullet-point list of ‘leadership standards’).
Where officers demonstrate willingness to learn, grow and develop by taking and passing the relevant legal exam, it is a significant achievement. So when Acting/Temporary opportunities arise to further progress their leadership aspirations, those individuals step up, putting themselves through an application or selection process. The organisation then allows them to fulfil those duties, but usually without providing an effective or consistent level of ongoing support or training to help them realise their potential to become great Sergeants.
Signposting (e.g. to work based assessment or online modules) takes the place of any real investment by forces in valued high quality, practical training. The kind that officers shout from the rooftops about. Aspiring leaders absolutely need to work under their own traction and momentum to get ahead, seek out development opportunities and demonstrate resilience.
Is this another one of the reasons good cops are leaving policing? It might be, but because many forces don’t conduct meaningful exit interviews to capture information from experienced officers currently leaving at the highest rates on record, the full picture is not available.
So, what do you think? Is any of this your experience or understanding? Are you newly promoted or a Temporary supervisor who has actually received meaningful support to help you do the job expected of you? Or are you still waiting for promised training some-time after being appointed to substantive rank?
I hope you’ve found this discussion on development and the preceding turnover statistics insightful. In Part 4 of this series, I’ll explore more about the officer functions and ranks. For now, I hope you’ve found this police strength series interesting and thought-provoking.
Kind Regards, Steve
Seeking police promotion? Want to get a massive head start right now? Hit the ground running with your personal digital promotion toolkit, and/or my market-leading Police Promotion Masterclass. There’s nothing else like it to effectively prepare you for success in your leadership aspirations. You can also contact me to arrange more personal coaching support. Or try my podcast for your ongoing police leadership CPD covering a range of fascinating subjects.
It would be interesting to see how the England and Wales stats compare to Scotland, where, from my own experience, level of service on my response team averaged 10years. This was also reflected in level of service for those seeking promotion and lateral moves – a much different dynamic.