The College have just published summary results from the November 2024 Inspector’s NPPF Step 2 legal exam.
It must have been a tough exam, the pass rate was just 33%. As summarised below, this is the lowest recorded since 2011, the earliest comparable data available. 606 officers passed from a total of over 1800 who put themselves forward.
In this ‘stats corner’ blog, I provide an intuitive summary of the College of Policing’s published data. I’ll cover diversity of results, how forces compare, who’s top, what the longer term trends look like, and what next if you passed or failed.
For those seeking promotion to Inspector, this will also be useful reading to familiarise yourself with performance concepts. Understanding quantitative data and graphs will become an important part of this more strategic role.
Passed your exam? Want promotion to Sergeant? Want to cut to the chase? Whatever process you face, CVF or tailored force values, forward-facing questions, presentations, application forms… here’s WHAT WORKS in helping you understand the process and become a better leader. Feel free to call me if you have any questions on 07581 299532, I’m generally available, easy going and happy to chat. I might even have a promotional discount code running and able to share, so you know you’re getting the best deal!
“I will prepare and some day my chance will come.” – Abraham Lincoln
Inspector Exam Headline Results
As I showed in the introduction, Inspector exam results have been dwindling for several years. Only a third of the 1,822 candidates passed the November 2024 exam. For the year as a whole, another 1300 candidates have been added to the promotion pool, whereas in 2023 there were 1600. Only around half that number get promoted each year, so competition is tough.
In terms of the specific pass marks, only 6 candidates attained the ‘High Pass’ mark of 75%. While these high passes are dwindling, those getting a ‘Low Fail’ are increasing, suggesting the exams are getting more difficult. 29 Sergeants scored lower than 35% on the most recent multiple-choice exam.
Compared to the October Sergeant’s exam results, the Inspector’s pass rate is lower: 33% vs. 48%. The difference is generally explained by the higher bar set for the Inspector level. However, the decline in results for recent years seen for the Inspector exam is not shown in that for Sergeants.
Pass or Fail, the Road is Long
Congratulations if you’re among the 606 Sergeants with the NPPF legal exam pass under your belt. It’s your golden ticket to join the thousands of other candidates vying for the most challenging part of the national police promotion framework (NPPF) for most: Step 3. That’s the competitive in-force process.
Regardless whether you’re going for promotion via the Fast Track route or via the ‘regular’ way, take a moment to celebrate this well-earned success. The exam was clearly tough, with only a third of candidates attaining the 65% pass rate. No doubt this feels like climbing a mountain after all the intensive study of law and procedure, but there’s another peak ahead.
Firstly, there’s a postcode lottery of assessment processes you must contend with when your force announce a process. Secondly, there’s intense competition given that available positions are oversubscribed for, so it’s an employer’s market.
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And if you didn’t pass this time? Commiserations, but recognise there’s always learning in failure. And now that the College offer two exams per year, you can put your hard work to the test again soon enough in May 2025. Promotion and career progression is a marathon not a sprint. In the meantime, you can continue meaningful leadership CPD by listening to my premium podcasts, reading free blogs, while gradually building your leadership evidence against the CVF behaviours.
“The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” – Malcolm X
Variation of Results Between Forces
As with the Sergeant’s exam, forces vary wildly in their NPPF legal exam results. Take a look at the graph above. How did your force do?
North Wales and Suffolk Police topped the pile with 67%, with Cheshire and Warwickshire following closely behind. The relatively low ‘all force average’ is particularly skewed by several larger forces scoring low, particularly the Metropolitan Police whose pass rate was 21%. Greater Manchester Police and Durham joined them in the low 20’s.
Below is an expanded view of five sizeable forces, including those who seem to consistently score relatively lower. GMP, the Met, and Essex Police have seen consistent decline over the last few years. West Mids and West Yorkshire have been more consistent, with pass rates of around 40% and 50% respectively.
Since 2021, there have now been six Inspector exams. Some forces perform consistently better or worse than others. The table below summarises the Top 8 and Bottom 8 forces based on their average Inspector exam success rates since 2021. Thames Valley Police and Lincolnshire also feature top in the long term Sergeant’s exam trends. Conversely, the Met, Cleveland, Essex, and West Mids are forces featuring in the bottom 8 of both.
These vast disparities suggest differences in the support provided to officers between these forces; whether that’s in the provision of protected learning time, subsidised Blackstone’s manuals (which the syllabus for all exams is based on), or other supportive schemes in operation.
The proposed NPPF replacement called ‘SIPP’ aims to remove barriers people face to promotion. As part of the rationale, the College of Policing explicitly mention the exam as one of the main barriers to inclusion.
SIPP also has a legal exam. It went live alongside the NPPF one this time round and will continue throughout 2025 for the four trial forces (Avon and Somerset, Gwent, Lincolnshire, and Leicestershire). While they’ve published data for the NPPF exam, the College have not published any SIPP exam results so far, so NPPF vs. SIPP success rates cannot yet be compared.
Equality of Opportunity? Exam Results Diversity…
The College compare disparities for two of the nine protected characteristics in their published exam results data. Those characteristics are Race (indicated by broad ‘white’ and ‘minority ethnic’ ethnicity categories) and Sex (male or female). The don’t provide information about other protected characteristics, such as Religion/Belief, Disability or Sexual Orientation.
The decline in pass rates is shown across these demographics in recent years…
The gap between Minority Ethnic candidates and their White colleagues remains, despite lots of positive action activities in recent years attempting to bridge this gap. Despite ongoing declines, women remain slightly ahead of men in their exam success. One of the stated goals of the new SIPP scheme is to close such gaps, creating equality of outcomes.
What are your thoughts on this? Have the exams got more difficult? What can forces do better? How effective is the exam support given to aspiring officers?
In terms of aspiration and success levels, females now represent 28% of all Sergeants. 29% of the Inspector’s promotion exam candidates were female. That means increased representation through the ranks of Inspector + will be a struggle. Will this translate into success at the next stage of the promotion process? I’m hoping to contribute positively here, with extensive and bespoke support for female officers seeking promotion.
On ethnicity, minority ethnic officers account for 7% of those at Sergeant level. The proportion of promotion candidates going for the Inspector’s exam who were minority ethnic was 12%, so the ‘aspiration rate’ is high among this group.
However, given the relatively poor exam results, minority ethnic candidates formed just 9% of those who passed. Even if the cohort go on to achieve substantive promotion, this isn’t going to drastically change the underrepresented profile of the leadership ranks anytime soon. Currently, 6% of all Sergeants (and fewer in Superintendent ranks and above) are from ethnic minority groups.
The next police promotion exams for both SIPP and NPPF are in Spring 2025. I wish you luck if you’re going for a retake and applaud your resilience and determination.
As always, I’m here for your ongoing leadership CPD wherever you are in the process. But if you’ve got an upcoming board and want to focus your efforts in limited time, my premium Inspector toolkits are just the ticket. They work time and again and my clients rave about them.
Kind Regards, Steve
Seeking police promotion? Want a MASSIVE head start right now? Hit the ground running with your personal digital promotion toolkit, and/or my market-leading Police Promotion Masterclass. There’s nothing else like it to effectively prepare you for success in your leadership aspirations. You can also contact me to arrange more personal coaching support. Or try my podcast for your ongoing police leadership CPD covering a range of fascinating subjects.
